suffering the biggest recession. joining us is chris williamson, global chief economist, which puts all that data together. take the german pmis, take your composite pmis, not cheery. >> it's not a good picture, no. the survey is pretty unanimous, saying the zone is going through a tough moment, the worst since 2009. these are really bad numbers. what's interesting is the official data haven't quite caught up with that yet. they're still suggesting a sta stagnation. >> if you were going to translate this into gdp numbers, hard data, what would the read-through be? >> well, we're looking for the region as a whole, a gdp collapse of around 5.6% in the third quarter and that same rate of decline as we go into the fourth quarter. that sort of contraction is what we're seeing at the moment. that matched the pmi reading in terms of how you would look at gdp. so france has joined the periphery, if you like. germany is showing some resilience, but nevertheless -- >> october manufacturing pmi came in this morning -- what was the flash estimate? 45.7. now people are looking for number 48 on that.